Estimating the duration of the inspection and storage of Covid-19
Keywords:lockdown, COVID-19, Coronavirus
"How long should these restrictions last?"
To measure this question, two measures of disease spread are proposed. These; daily growth rate and time to double cumulative cases. These metrics enable the targeting of three simple, intuitive, and actionable comparisons: Inspection, Control, and Enclosure (<10%, 1%, and 0.1% growth, respectively).
Besides, action or response is defined as major testing and quarantine, home orders, or deadlocks. Analysis of the top 36 countries and 50 states of the USA affected by the epidemic disease by the end of March gives the following results. Aggressive interventions only caused any damping or deceleration.
It takes an average of three weeks for countries to act. However, even aggressive intervention does not give immediate results. It takes an average of three to three weeks from countries' aggressive intervention, four weeks to control, and more than four weeks to spread the disease. During the action, there are important differences between Asian and European countries, large and small. Using these findings, possible inspection and control dates are estimated for certain countries and the US States.
Without a vaccine, treatment, or major test and quarantine, deadlocks and illegal orders will take months. However, the US faces a unique challenge, because only half of the states have adopted aggressive interventions and did it at different times. Even if these situations gain control or limitation, they may be vulnerable to transmission from other late countries.
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Copyright (c) 2020 Dr. Erkin ARTANTAŞ , Dr. Esra SİPAHİ
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