Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Analyses


  • Jacob Sesugh Angaha Economics and Business Policy Department, Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research Ibadan, Nigeria.
  • Tessy Ajiji Atong Department of Economics, Plateau State University Bokkos, Plateau State, Nigeria


budget and threshold, growth, financing, Agriculture


This study evaluates agricultural financing and economic growth in Nigeria using threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. Examining the efficacy of agricultural financing on economic growth in Nigeria is the objective of the study. This evaluation covered but short and long run analyses. Diagnostic tests are adopted using Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Co-integration, and Error Correction Model. Threshold Autoregressive model (TAR) was utilized to test agricultural finance sustainability in Nigeria from 1990-2017. Findings showed that Nigeria has not reach a healthy threshold as revealed in all the regimes of GDP, the study concludes that Nigeria’s agricultural financing is not healthy enough to yield greater benefits for the battled economy. This is because it has not achieved healthy threshold of significant positive impact in agriculture. The paper recommends among others that, there is great need to improve significantly government budget allocation to agriculture. Policy makers are encouraged to develop better frameworks that enhance more funds appropriated to the agricultural sector and financial institutions are expected to assist government on this struggle. Special Funds should be channeled to farmers and its relations to help boost production in the sector. This will lead to achievement of food security and high foreign exchange earnings.


Download data is not yet available.


Angahar J.S (2020) External Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Threshold Autoregressive Model (TAR),

Lap Lambert RT Academic Publishing, ISSN 978-620-2-66867-5

Angahar, J.S, (2013)’Banking Sector Reforms and Economic Performance: Analysis Using Credit to private Sector’’, International Journal of Trend in Economics Management and Technology; EISSN: 2321-5518; Vol 2(4)

Bernard, O. A. (2009). Empirical Analysis of Credit Supply and Agricultural Output in Nigeria. Department of Economics, Kogi State University, Ayingba-Nigeria.

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). (2019). Annual Report and Statement of Account, Abuja, Nigeria; Chimobi, O. P. & Igwe, O. L. (2010).Budget deficit, money supply and inflation in Nigeria, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 19, 52-60.

Ebere, C. & Osundina, K. C. (2012).Government Expenditure on Agriculture and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064

Gollin, D., Parente, S. L. &Rogerson, R. (2002). The role of agriculture in development. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 92(2): 160-64.

Ideba, E E., Iniobong, E., Otu., W. and Itoro, N. (2014), ‘Analysis of Agricultural Public Capital Expenditure and Agricultural Economic Growth in Nigeria,’ American Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 4(4), 443-456.

Iganiga, B.O. &Unemhilin, D.O. (2011).The impact of federal government agricultural expenditure on agricultural output in Nigeria. J. Econ., 2(2): 81-88.

Kalakech, K. (2009). The nature of government expenditure and its impact on sustainable economic growth.Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 1(4), 39-47.

Li F (2005) Threshold Autoregressive TAR Model, China Research Review, Vol (5) No 5

Lin & Piesse, (2003). The Impact of Research Led Agricultural Productivity Growth on Poverty Reduction in Africa, Asia and Latin America. World Development, 31(12), Available at SSRN:

Olowofeso E. O., Adeleke A. O. and A. O. Udoji (2015). Impact of Private Sector Credit on Economic Growth in Nigeria. The CBN Journal of Applied Statistics Vol. 6 No. 2: 81-101

Oji-Okoro, I. (2011). Analysis of the contribution of agricultural sector on the Nigerian economic development. world review of business research, 1(1), 191 – 200.

Ojo, J. A. T., (2005). Central Banking and Financial Sector Management in Nigeria; An Outsider view: Issues in Money, Finance and Economic Management in Nigeria (Essays in Honour of Professor ObasanmiOlakankpo), 35 – 98.

Suberu, O. J., Ajala, O. A., Akande, M. O., &Olure-Bank A. (2015).Diversification of the Nigerian Economy towards a Sustainable Growth and Economic Development. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences.3(2), 107-114.

Syed, W A, Muhammad, A., and Rana, M. (2015), ‘Agricultural Export and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan,’ International Journal of African and Asian Studies, 13, 1-10

Tijani, B. (2011). Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Action Plan Towards the Attainment of a Sustainable Agricultural Transformation in Nigeria. Being a Lead Paper Delivered at the World Food Day Seminar, Agricultural Show Ground Keffi Road, Abuja, Nigeria. 1 – 10.

World Bank Development Report.(2019). Operation of the Agricultural Credit Support Scheme (ACSS). published by the Central Bank of Nigeria.




How to Cite

Jacob Sesugh Angaha, & Tessy Ajiji Atong. (2020). Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Analyses. SOCIALSCI JOURNAL, 7, 36-45. Retrieved from



Research Articles